The 2024 Iowa State University Land Value Survey reported a 3.1% decrease to $11,467 per acre for average Iowa farmland values from November 2023 to November 2024.
This represents a decrease of $369 per acre from last year. The 2024 nominal land value, although lower than last year, is still 31.6% higher than the 2013 peak in nominal land values and higher than the 2021 nominal land value, when the more recent surge in land values began.
The inflation-adjusted value, $8,627/acre in 2015 dollars, saw a 5.5% decrease but is also higher than the 2021 inflation-adjusted value.
The plateauing land values from 2023 are now on a modest decline, with most counties and regions experiencing a relatively small adjustment in land values. The downward pressures on land values are largely attributable to persistently high interest rates over the last couple of years, lower commodity prices, increasing input prices, and weather uncertainty. At the same time, limited land supply, good crop yields, high cash and credit availability from the last few years, strong demand, including from investors, and an expectation of a good farm economy in the longer run supported the overall growth in Iowa land values. Nearly half of the respondents expected modest declines in land values last year, which are now realized in 2024. This year more than half the respondents still expect slight decreases in land values within a year, with about 80% of respondents remaining optimistic about the future of the land market, forecasting increases in five-year land values.
The 2024 Iowa State University Land Value Survey revealed a geographic pattern in land value changes across crop reporting districts, counties, and land quality classes. Land values decreased in eight of the nine crop reporting districts except the South Central district, with an increase of 3.6%. The other two southern districts reported minimal percentage decreases, with Southwest and Southeast districts dropping by 1.7% each, making land values in the southern districts decline relatively less. All other districts reported decreases of less than 5%, except for West Central, where land values decreased by 7.4%.
Across land quality classes, medium-quality land saw the greatest decrease, 3%, while high- and low-quality land experienced 2.6% and 2.8% decreases, respectively. Within the districts, high-quality land increased in value only in South Central by 9.7%, while the largest decrease was reported in West Central district at 7.1%. Medium-quality land value decreased the least in East Central by less than 0.1% and the decreased the most in West Central district at 7.7%; medium-quality land value also only increased in South Central district at 4.9%. Low-quality land values increased in Northeast, Central, and East Central districts with the largest increase in Central district at 5.1%. They decreased in all other districts with the largest decline coming from West Central district at 11.5%.
Seventy-five of the 99 counties reported decreases in nominal land values, and 88 counties reported a decrease in inflation-adjusted values. Twenty counties still report the highest nominal land values since 1950, and 11 counties report the highest inflation-adjusted values. Despite the decreases, all of the nominal and 82 of the inflation-adjusted values are above the 2021 values. The largest percentage decrease, 9.7%, was reported in Harrison County, while the largest increase, 10.5%, was reported in Decatur County.
In general, the results from the 2024 Iowa State University Land Value Survey are similar to the results from other surveys, which all highlight modest declines in farmland values due to higher interest rates and lower commodity prices.
In November 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported a 1% decline in Iowa‘s “good” farmland values from October 2023 to October 2024.
In September, the REALTORS® Land Institute reported an overall 8.1% decrease in Iowa cropland values from September 2023 to September 2024, with decreases observed in all nine crop reporting districts.
On the other hand, the US Department of Agriculture June Area Survey, reported a 4.1% rise in Iowa‘s agricultural real estate values (land and building) from June 2023 to June 2024.
Fifty-six percent of respondents reported fewer sales in 2024 relative to 2023, only 13% of respondents reported more sales, while 31% reported the same level of sales in 2024 compared to 2023.
The majority of farmland sales, 57%, were from estate sales, followed by retired farmers at 22%. Active farmers accounted for 8% of sales, while local and non-local investors accounted for 5% and 6%, respectively.
The farmland value estimates from the Iowa State survey are average estimates for all farmland in a county, including cropland, pasture, CRP, and timberland. Specifically, we asked respondents to estimate “farmland value for average-sized farms in your county as of November 1, 2024.”
The Iowa State University Land Value Survey was initiated in 1941 and is sponsored annually by Iowa State University. Only the state average and the district averages are based directly on Iowa State University survey data. County estimates are derived using a procedure that combines Iowa State University survey results with data from the US Census of Agriculture. Since 2014, the survey has been conducted by the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development in the Department of Economics at Iowa State University and Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.
The survey is intended to provide information on general land value trends, geographical land price relationships, and factors influencing the Iowa land market. The survey is not intended to provide a direct estimate for any particular piece of property.
Methodology
The survey is an expert opinion survey based on reports by licensed real estate brokers, farm managers, appraisers, agricultural lenders, county assessors, and selected individuals considered to be knowledgeable of land market conditions. Respondents were asked to report for more than one county if they were knowledgeable about the land markets. The 2024 ISU Land Value Survey is based on 479 usable county-level land value estimates provided by 330 agricultural professionals.
Of the 330 respondents, 60% completed the survey online. Online responses allow participants to provide estimates for up to 12 counties. The CARD Farmland portal facilitates the visualization and analysis of Iowa farmland values, pooling data from Iowa State University, the United States Department of Agriculture, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the REALTORS® Land Institute Iowa Chapter, as well as making use of charts over time and interactive county maps.
Participants in the survey are asked to estimate the value of high-, medium-, and low-quality land in their county. Comparative sales and other factors are taken into account by the respondents in making these value estimates. This survey is the only data source that provides an annual land value estimate at the county level for each of the 99 counties in Iowa. In addition, this survey provides estimates of high-, medium-, and low-quality land at the crop reporting district and state level.
Influential factors
Most survey respondents listed positive and negative factors influencing the land market. Of all respondents, 84% listed at least one positive factor, and 85% listed at least one negative factor. In most cases, respondents listed multiple factors.
There were three positive factors listed by about 50% of respondents who provided at least one positive factor.
Limited land supply, mentioned in 23% of responses.
Strong yields and the combination of cash on hand and credit availability were the next most frequently mentioned positive factors, with 16.5% and 12.1% of responses, respectively.
Other frequently mentioned positive factors included strong land demand, including from investors (12.5%), a recent history of favorable interest rates (4.6%), and a good farm economy overall (3.7%).
There were also three negative factors listed by more than 45% of respondents who identified at least one negative factor.
Fall of commodity prices was mentioned in 33.8% of responses.
The series of interest rate hikes over the past two years was the second most important concern, with 30% of responses identifying it.
Concerns about higher input costs, cash and credit availability, and weather uncertainty were the next most frequently mentioned negative factors, mentioned by 9.3%, 3.1%, and 2.8% of respondents, respectively.
Inflation and uncertainty in agricultural profitability were mentioned in 2.7% and 2.1% of responses, respectively.
Land sales by buyer category
The survey asked respondents what percent of the land was sold to six categories of buyers: existing local farmers, existing relocating farmers, new farmers, local investors, non-local investors, or other.
The majority of farmland sales, 70%, were to existing farmers, of which existing local farmers captured 68% of land sales. Only 2% of sales were to existing relocating farmers. New farmers represented 4% of sales. Investors represented 23% of land sales, with 12% going to local investors and 11% to non-local. Other purchasers accounted for 3% of sales.
Land sales by seller category
The survey also asked respondents what percent of land was bought from six categories of sellers: active farmers, retired farmers, estate sales, local investors, non-local investors, or other.
The majority of farmland sales, 57%, were from estate sales, followed by retired farmers at 22%. Active farmers accounted for 8% of sales, while local and non-local investors accounted for 5% and 6%, respectively.
Estate sales by crop reporting district ranged from 45% in the South Central district to 67% in the West Central district.
Sales by investors were highest in the Southwest and South Central districts at 20% each. In the Southwest district, local investors represent 10% of sales and non-locals represent another 10%. In the South Central district, local investors represent 6% of sales and non-locals represent 14%. The Northwest and East Central districts reported the lowest investor sale activity (8% each), with local investors representing 3% and 5% of sales and non-locals representing 5% and 3%, respectively.
Lenders and brokers are top respondents
The survey asked the main occupation of the respondent: farm manager, appraiser, agricultural lender, broker/realtor, government, farmer/landowner, and other, along with the respondents’ number of years of experience and the number of counties in which they offer services.
In total, 330 agricultural professionals completed the survey, providing 479 county land value estimates. Of these 330, agricultural lenders represented the largest group, accounting for 31.5% of all respondents. Brokers/realtors and farm managers were the next largest groups, representing 17.6% and 16.4% of respondents, respectively.
Of all respondents, the percentage of agricultural lenders ranged from 20% in the Central district to 39% in the Northwest and West Central districts.
Our respondents, on average, have 26 years of experience in their current profession and offer professional services to an average of seven counties. While government officials typically only serve one or two counties, appraisers, agricultural lenders, farm managers, and realtors/brokers offer services, on average, to 13, 9, 11, and 4 counties, respectively.
The survey was completed online by 60% of the 330 respondents.
Farmland value and crop price predictions
The survey also asked respondents to predict land values and cash crop prices one and five years from now, as well as the prevailing interest rates for a 20-year farmland mortgage and a one-year operating loan. This year’s survey also asked the respondents about their one- and five-year predictions for inflation.
Respondents have optimistic views regarding the strength of the farmland market five years from now and generally expect stable or even higher land values, with the one-year expectation tilting towards a fall in land values. Fifty-eight percent of respondents forecast a decrease in their local land market in one year, while 23% expected a higher land value, and 18% forecast no change. While the most popular response was for the one-year land price forecast to decrease by 5% or less, the second-most popular answer was for land values to drop between 5% and 10%. Looking five years ahead, 11% of respondents forecasted a decline, much smaller than the 58% forecasting a decline 12 months from now. Meanwhile, 79% of respondents expect an increase in land values in the long term, with an increase of 10–20% selected by most respondents.
To better gauge the respondents’ views of current farmland values, the survey also asks them to rate the current farmland values in their primary county as way too low, too low, just right, too high, or way too high. Fifty-nine percent and 8% of respondents think the current land values are too high or way too high, respectively, while only 5% of respondents think the current land values are too low. Twenty-eight percent of respondents think the land values are just right.
Respondents expect corn and soybean cash crop markets to remain relatively stable at their lower prices. In particular, the predicted state average cash corn prices for November 2025 (one year from now) and 2029 (five years from now) are $4.17/bu. and $5.06/bu., respectively. The statewide average soybean price predictions are $10.03/bu. in one year and $11.67/bu. five years from now.
Respondents reported their expectations for inflation in November 2025 (one year from now) and November 2029 (five years from now) at 3% and 4%, respectively. Predictions for typical interest rates for 20-year farmland mortgages and one-year operating loans are 6.93% and 8.11%, respectively. These are slightly lower than one-year-ago levels, likely due to the announcements of interest rate cuts.
Land quality and Corn Suitability Rating 2
To gauge how each respondent defined high-, medium-, and low-quality land for their county, we asked for estimated average CSR2 (Corn Suitability Rating 2) for high-, medium-, and low-quality land. We also asked for estimates of the percent of land area for each land quality class.
Over 90% of participants provided at least one CSR2 estimate for the corresponding land quality classes. The estimated average CSR2 values statewide for high-, medium-, and low-quality land are 83, 71, and 56 points, respectively. The estimated percentage of land area for high-, medium-, and low-quality land is 36%, 40%, and 23%, respectively.
In addition, respondents ranked high-, medium-, and low-quality land based on relative conditions in their region. For example, the average CSR2 for high-quality land in the South Central district is 72, which is only slightly larger than the CSR2 for low-quality land in the Northwest district (66).
